Wednesday, December 19, 2007

This looks promising!

Sometimes it is so scary how predictable things are. Guess what happens when a ceasefire drags on and there is not progress towards a sustainable peace? You guessed it! Doesn't matter if it is N. Ireland, Sri Lanka or now Western Sahara, but without meaningful dialog, violence tends to return. It is not a done deal as of yet, but the Polisario are going to vote on if they will resume the "armed struggle" against the Moroccan government:

"We had a big debate yesterday over negotiations," Khadad, a senior Polisario official who is also the conference spokesman, said by telephone from Tifariti.

"The military people said 'We can't keep negotiating idenfinitely. We need to assess the situation ... We should propose resuming armed struggle."

"Others said 'No, No, we should continue negotiating because we have a third round of talks just coming up in January."

"We will vote on this on the 18th at the end of the conference," Khadad said.

Of course, Morocco ain't gonna take this lying down, how is this for silly bluster?
Rabat says most Sahrawis are unhappy with Polisario speaking in their name and are ready to accept limited autonomy.

"Morocco has never been so glorious as it is today at the national and diplomatic level. The international community supports Morocco," Errachid said. "Polisario just wants to muddy the waters."

No country officially recognises Morocco's rule over Western Sahara but the U.N. Security Council is divided over a solution, with some non-aligned states supporting Polisario but France and the United States backing Morocco.
If Morocco really wants to be a liberal democracy they should be encouraged to go all the way. The US and France should definitely not coddle them so much either. If these guys could get their act together things could get better really quickly. The wind and solar power of W. Sahara, Morocco and Mauritania could supply enough energy for most of Europe and the fish and phosphate reserves could provide a lot of money for development if exploited properly. Nah, dragging on this interminable conflict to the detriment of the voiceless masses is much more fun!!

4 comments:

Victor said...

The wind and solar power of W. Sahara, Morocco and Mauritania

*eyeroll

And who should pay for these tens of thousands of bird-killing windmills and hundreds of square miles of photovoltaics? Have you even considered the environmental cost of manufacturing all this crap? Nimr, you make good points, but get off the alt.energy bandwagon.

Ten nuclear power plants will generate more energy, more reliably, with less environmental impact, than these dreams of free energy nirvana.

==========================

Now, regarding the rest, allow me to offer a suggestion to explain US and French support for Moroccan attempts to politically consolidate this geopolitical area.

Morocco is Western-leaning, increasingly democratic nation, with a growing economy and competent security forces. Western Sahara is a patch of sand. You want a patch of sand to declare independence? Yes, it's someone's sand, it always is. Nevertheless, the last thing Northern Africa needs, from the US/EU perspective, is another failed, dirt poor nation-state on the jihadist silk road, just a stone's throw from Fortress Europe and then visa-free travel to the US.

In that context, giving a competent, mature, capable nation (Morocco) responsibility over this geographic area doesn't seem like such a bad idea.

Btw, Wikipedia takes issue with the article's characterization of the US and French as all that enthused with Morocco...

Internationally, the major powers such as the United States have taken a generally ambiguous and neutral position on each side's claims, and have pressed both parties to agree on a peaceful resolution.

dairyflat said...

Morocco is Western-leaning, increasingly democratic nation, with a growing economy and competent security forces.

Unless of course you mention Western Sahara in any kind of public discourse. Then REPRESSION rears its ugly head.

Victor said...

really? i'm not too familiar with this neck of the woods. any Moroccans who can elaborate?

Will said...

One Moroccan who could elaborate is Ali Lmrabet, a journalist who has been repeatedly harassed and even imprisoned for going against the monarchy's line on Western Sahara and the king's finances. A Moroccan spy even said he was ordered to kill Lmrabet. I hope that doesn't qualify as increasingly democratic.

As far as stability goes, there are legitimate reasons for thinking Western Sahara could succeed as a state. It has phosphates, Africa's 2nd largest fishery, and possible oil reserves (at least Morocco's aggressive, illegal exploration campaigns suggest so). Anyway, there won't be peace in Western Sahara until there's a referendum, so even if the US and France really are just interested in the region's stability they should make Morocco fulfill the promises it made in the 1991 Settlement Plan.

And if France's support for Morocco really is based on supporting Western-leaning democracies, why does it continually block the addition of a human rights monitoring team to the UN contingent in Western Sahara, MINURSO?