Guest Post: How Will Arab-Americans Be Voting Tomorrow?
This guest post comes from a fellow “What’s Happening” co-host, Suzan, who was on the show when we interviewed researchers on the recent Zogby Poll forecasting Arab-American voting trends for Big Tuesday:
Poll shows that Obama leads McCain by a three-to-one margin among Arab-Americans (or.. Obama earns greatest support ever recorded for a Presidential candidate among Arab American voters.)
A recent Zogby International poll suggests that Senator Obama leads Senator McCain by a three-to-one margin among Arab Americans in both the two-way match-up and the four-way match-up.
Obama earns the greatest support ever recorded for a Presidential candidate among Arab American voters. In the two-way race, Obama leads 64/23, while in the four-way race (adding Barr and Nader), Obama leads 62/22. The poll projects that 68% of Arab American voters will vote for Obama on Election Day. These findings may be significant because 30% of Arab American voters live in five battleground states – Michigan, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. (McCain in effect conceded Michigan by re-directing staff and ending television advertising.)
Another key finding is the unprecedented shift of voters moving towards the Democratic Party with Arab-Americans citing the economy as the most important issue. In the 2000 Presidential Election, the margin of Arab Americans who identified themselves as Democrats compared to those who identified themselves as Republicans was about equal with Democrats having a slight edge. However this survey finds that today, Arab Americans are much more likely to consider themselves Democrats. Zogby Communications Director Fritz Wenzel says “There’s been a strong move over the last 4-8 years of Arab American voters moving away from the Republican Party and towards the Democratic Party… just as important as that, is the disadvantage that the Republicans find themselves in among all Arab American voters today.”
The shift in party identification among Arab Americans in such a short time period may be unprecedented for an ethnic group. African-Americans shifted to the Democratic party over a period of many decades “…but in such a short period of time this is rather unique that one demographic groups moves so heavily in the direction of one party and against the other.” Wenzel said. This means that Arab Americans may essentially give the race to Democratic Senate and Congressional candidates in some states because they vote in rates higher than the general public. Arab American Institute Public Affairs Director Nadine Wahab says that “We are third behind the Jewish and African-American communities in voter registration and vote at rates close to 60%.”
Speaking from an Obama campaign rally in Ohio, Obama volunteer Tarek El Messidi, 27, went door-to door campaigning in Tennessee, South Carolina and Ohio for Democratic candidate Barack Obama. “Of the hundreds of Arabs and Muslims that I’ve spoken to, I’ve only met one person who supports McCain. Some of them support Nader or are not going to vote, but a vast majority support Obama.” El Messidi who is also a Board member of the Islamic association of Cincinnati says “The Muslim community is mobilizing in Cincinnati. Muslims have been phone banking thousands of Arab and Muslim phone numbers to make sure they get out the vote.”
Though it may be surprising to some, Arab American voters overwhelmingly cite the economy as the most important issue. The Iraq war and health care follow distantly. “Some people may automatically assume that Arab Americans are going to vote first and foremost on the Iraq war or unrest in the Middle East but that’s not the case according to our poll. We found that like most American voters today the economy is far and away the item of top concern to Arab American voters for a couple of different reasons we believe.”
Wenzel believes that this is because it affects their economic well-being as they work and live here in this country but secondly many younger Arab Americans are returning to the Middle East because they are unable to find jobs in the United States. “…[F]amilies are being split up in a rather unusual way and so that’s upsetting Arab American voters and they’d rather see a stronger economy here so that their families could stay together in one country and everyone could make a living.”
Wahab who also works with “Yalla Vote” the Arab American Institute’s initiative to engage Arab Americans in the political process says that “The economic issue is an American issue. When we approach Arab Americans we approach them as Americans.”
El Messidi says though the economy may have become the issue in the last two or three weeks he feels that foreign policy is the issue among Muslims “They want better diplomatic relations of the country they come from. They’re tired of wars waged by the U.S. Obama represents hope that those wars will desist and that our troops will be pulled out of our home countries.”
As a first generation Arab American, El Messidi says that Arabs and Muslims can relate to Barack Obama because many of them are the children of immigrants. “Many of us also have a funny name like he does. Also our parents stressed the importance of a good education as did Obama’s parents and grandparents. We relate and feel a connection to him and this fuels a lot of excitement.”
Obama leads among all Arab subgroups, except among Arab American Republicans – where McCain earns only 62% of the vote. Obama holds an overwhelming lead among Arab American Muslims, women, and young voters. Joe Biden had a considerably high favorable rating of 58/31 while Sarah Palin had an equally high unfavorable rating, including among Arab American Republicans. Only one-in-ten gave President Bush a positive job approval rating.
Some Arabs and Muslims may view Obama as the lesser of two evils. They feel they have been alienated because Obama lists being Muslim as one of the smears against him. They may also feel that Obama has not reached out to them enough. He has yet to visit a mosque or hold an official meeting with leading Muslim clerics.
The Zogby telephone poll was commissioned by the non-partisan Arab American Institute and included 504 interviews of likely Arab American voters nationwide between October 10th and October 15th 2008. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. There are 3.5 million Arab Americans and Arab Americans comprise are 5% of the Michigan population.
