Renewed American engagement with the Middle East has been aggressive on all fronts, hinting at what could be the beginning of a new imperial order, albeit one that resembles the dying days of old empire there. Obama’s announced trip to Turkey brings to mind American foreign policy’s growing resemblance to one stage of the Ottoman empire’s devolution.

Where Bush sought to dominate, Obama seeks to sway, persuade, and lure, which means recognizing the guise of autonomy, treating the states there as real, and the regimes as legitimate agents of the people. Indirect control through the illusion of sovereignty is more effective and insidious then outright domination. In political science parlance, it is the exercise of smart power.

It is appropriate then that Obama will be heading to Turkey in one month, according to Secretary of State Clinton, for his first Presidential visit to the region. She did not say whether Ankara will be the Muslim capital he promised to speak from within his first 100 days.

This visit, and his promise to speak from a Muslim capital, signifies the fact that Obama is pursuing a much slicker imperial arrangement, one in which the center, Washington, DC, uses carrots and sticks to reshape the regional order after the Bush doctrine unintentionally shifted it in ways counter to American interests.

Obama’s foreign policy will swing on mobilizing a Sunni bulwark against the Iranian threat. While it appears to empower certain states, under the guise of acting in their interests, it is ultimately intended to benefit the United States, rather than the Arab people. The regimes given the illusion of autonomy, which also means actual influence given the important of perceptions, are unelected, repressive and fundamentally destructive in their respective nations.

The US is looking to break the Syria-Iran alliance by engaging Iran in tough, inflexible terms, while offering Syria much more attractive terms, such as the prospects of returning the Golan, and the prospects of economic, aid and security benefits.

At the same time, the U.S. will put Saudi Arabia and Egypt firmly in the center of Arab affairs, despite their grotesque despotism, and welcome Turkey back to the Middle East. The withdrawal from Iraq will entail leaving behind 50,000 (un)occupying troops to bolster a bankrupt regime, and remain on Iran’s doorstep. It will also crucially mean a clash decisively with Israel. Another element involves de-limiting Russian support of Iran.

By firming up Sunni power as a wedge against the Shia’ crescent, Obama’s efforts resemble a stage of the Ottoman empire. During the Ottoman empire’s long period of stagnation, it began losing territory and standing. Certain areas gained independence and fell under the sway of rival empires. By the 18th century, the traditionally highly centralized authority started to give way to varying degrees of provincial autonomy. Local governors and leaders were given new but ultimately nominal powers, but without altering the fundamental structure of authority.

It was a survival mechanism, and of course, it failed. The autonomy was ultimately too illusory and the fundamental centralization of power meant the further ambitious reforms could not see fruition. The people were not any more empowered as local nobility only gained.

To complete the analogy, one must see Obama as the grand sultan, with each Arab state as a vilayet/wilayeh. To truly herd the Arab states, the petty national leaders must be given the illusion of autonomy to act, to have the image of Arab heroes — which the Arab people seem to have a craving for.

The only way to completely pull this off is by putting into effect a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine issue and handing the victory to the “moderate” Arab states. Egypt will be redeemed for Camp David, Syria will need it to shift sides, and Saudi Arabia will be treated as a victorious champion for rightfully playing close to the United States.

This will make Arab publics warmer to the regimes, who will then be more able to ascribe to the new order. It will be as the corrupt walis of the Ottoman agitated for greater empowerment, but only to share the benefit of Ottoman rule.

While Bush sought to strengthen the empire’s control, he could not see Palestine as the key. Obama does. And the fact that he is going to do so with more intelligence, sophistication, and efficacy is scary.

Related posts:

1. Turkey’s War on the Kurds Hits Iraq
2. Bring Back the Ottoman Empire!
3. Obama says Iraq trip could refine his policy
4. Obama’s War on the War on Terror; but Don’t Let Gitmo Go to Waste
5. Robert Fisk: So far, Obama’s missed the point on Gaza…