Sizing Up the Iranian Elections
Iran is experiencing its most serious civil strife in decades. The re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad by an unbelievably high margin has led to violent street protests where demonstrators have clashed with the security forces. They’ve come out in large numbers. At least one person has already been killed when the Basij (a student paramilitary group that receives its orders from the IRGC) opened fire on a crowd in Tehran.
The election results remind us that the will of the people is not the deciding force in Iranian politics. All candidates were screened by the Supreme Council. The leading challenger was Mir Hossein Mousavi. He is now seen as a “reformist” but that is a relatively meaningless term. Afterall, he was once considered a radical.
Mousavi became prime minster two years after the revolution ended. He kept his post for eight years. It was a crucial time for Iran (as well as for Lebanon, which witnessed the rise of Hezbollah and the fall of the US mission there). Mousavi withdrew from political life in 1989. His resurgence has been interesting to watch as supporetrs have flocked to him in defiance of the current government. But there was no reason to expect much to change in Iran if he had emerged victorious. He is no Barack Obama. He is one of the boys, otherwise he wouldn’t have been allowed to run.
Whether or not Mousavi had the election stolen from him, it seems clear the ruling class has made a calculating move. Anti-American sentiment is one of the strongest cards those wretched clerics hold. By merely softening the tone Tehran hears from Washington, Obama has weakened their hand considerably. But re-instating Ahmadinejad ensures that US-Iranian relations will continue down a rocky road. What happens next is crucial. If Obama takes a firm position as a result of what’s happening, the mullahs may emerge victorious.
That would be a real shame. The system of governance in Iran is terrible. There is no democracy to speak of. The people are ruled by despotic men of ‘faith’ who do nothing to advance their country’s interests. Aside from keeping Iran in the headlines, Ahmadinejad has done nothing to improve his country’s standing in the international community. It should come as no surprise that so many Iranians are opposed to him. It’s tempting to say that US officials have learned from past mistakes, but they could be helping to incite protests now just as they did back in 1953.
Hopefully what is happening right now is a homegrown phenomenon. Iran needs another revolution if it is to rid itself of the backwards theology pulling the strings. Mousavi is hardly the right person to lead such a movement, but what’s important is that the people rise up. The process won’t be easy. We may be witnessing the beginning of something huge… It won’t happen overnight, but the “Islamic Republic” is bound to fall one day or another.
The people of Iran deserve better than Ahmadinejad and the clerics who give him his orders. The current regime is a complete disaster, but the media tends to focus more on the less important issues. In other words, this is not about Israel. Iran’s position on Zionism and the question of Palestine is a just one. The problem is the lack of civil freedoms and democracy, not nuclear weapons.
Just as Netanyahu has no intention of ever seeing a viable Palestinian state, Iran poses no existential threat to the state of Israel. It has enough problems of its own to contend with.
