This picture encapsulates the spirit of the recently concluded Lebanese elections… and it has nothing to do with the results that likely set the circumstances for its publication. The newspaper behind the photo claims it shows an actual ballot used by an angry voter. Khara 3alaykum wa 3ala hal entikhabat. Jumhuriyat moz. Mowaten adami. Most of it is lost in translation – as Arabic phrases so often are – but a literal English translation would be:
Shit on all of you and these elections.
“Banana Republic”
- a nice citizen
On Monday, Lebanese headed to the polls in record numbers. Several thousand were even flown in and paid to vote for certain people, but we are unlikely to hear the US and its allies screaming too loudly about foul play – they got what they wanted (sort of).
As Robert Fisk made clear in the brilliant article Will linked to earlier, there are no winners and losers in Lebanese elections. Hariri’s coalition may have won more seats than its rivals, but it fell short of securing a two-thirds majority in parliament. It is also worth noting that the party of Michel Aoun did better than any of its Christian rivals. Considering the role Lebanese Christians have typically played in Lebanese politics, Aoun could insist on having greater control over the cabinet than his rivals would be comfortable with.
The actual results are only the beginning. Now comes the interesting part – the process of forming the next government. There are several possible outcomes. The new parliament will convene soon (most likely under the auspices of tired veteran Nabih Berri) and ‘vote’ for a prime minister. They could select Saad Hariri or the newly elected MP and current PM Fuad Siniora. Of course they could choose someone else, but whatever they decide, they will do so before parliament convenes. Voting in Lebanon is just for show; deals are made ahead of time between the elders of various tribes; this is what happened in the run up to June 7.
In Lebanese politics, everything is done by consensus and the selection of the prime minster will be no exception. Once he is chosen, he will begin his quest to form a government. If he is to avoid civil war, he must reach out to all major political parties. But it is most probable that the president will see his influence increase as Hariri seeks to alienate his rivals and prevent them from renewing their current veto power.
Of course there is always the chance of alliances shifting and affecting the final outcome, but whatever happens, it will likely be some semblance of a national unity government that is formed. Those pulling the strings will see to it that everything is done to maintain a delicate balance of power based on nothing more than sectarianism and tribalism. Nothing will change.
Meanwhile, outside forces are watching eagerly as it all unfolds. Washington lawmakers are relieved and they have been expressing their satisfaction with the recent election results. As one of them said:
These elections hold out the hope that Lebanon will be what we all know it can be: a place that respects all the different voices and religions and convictions within it; a nation that exists with one foot in the West and the other in the Arab world.
In other words Lebanon is spread wide open… and it is continually getting screwed from different angles.
Related posts:
- Previewing Lebanon’s Parliamentary Elections
- The Only Good Lebanese is a Dead Lebanese, Says Former U.S. Diplomat to Lebanon
- “Eat my d*ick”: the Lebanese version of “yes we can.”
- Remembering Iraq: Provincial elections…
- Lebanese Bloggers on Latest Fighting
Except that they’re not getting screwed; the March 14th coalition is moving Lebanon forward. Unlike Hezbollah, which looks backward, toward Syria.
Is there any intra-state conflict (Hamas vs Abbas, Lebanon, Mubarak vs the Islamic Brotherhood, etc.) where KabobFest actually supports the more secularized side?
Posted by Joe | June 9, 2009, 2:05 amWhy would the secularized side neccessarily equal the right side? You actually prefer Mubarak?
That says a lot. A lot.
Posted by MohammadKF | June 9, 2009, 12:57 pmm14 is not secular, not even remotely.
Posted by Nadia | June 9, 2009, 1:43 pmCome to think of it, that was one of the stupidest things you've ever said Joe. March 14 is a coalition of Sunni Muslims, supported and financed by the Wahhabi Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and fascist Christian groups. On the other hand, Hezbollah's allies are secular Christians, and Syria is a secular state.
Posted by MohammadKF | June 9, 2009, 4:35 pmOn the other hand, Hezbollah's allies are secular Christians…
Come to think of it, Mohammad, that was one of the stupidest things you've ever said, Mohammad.
Hezbollah = Party of God
Hezbollah's allies = secular Christians?
Does not compute. You claim that secular Christians not only support a theocratic organization, but they support a theocratic organization of a different religion? I don't know what in the hell to call Christians like that, but "secular" isn't it.
Posted by programmer craig | June 9, 2009, 11:38 pmThat pic makes a way better meme than that one of the FPM girls.
Posted by Nadia | June 9, 2009, 1:53 pmIn other words Lebanon is spread wide open… and it is continually getting screwed from different angles.
Lebanon, the victim? Gimme a break.
I actually don't agree with either Kalash or the official Western position. I don't think these elections matter very much, one way or another. All of the factions in Lebanon seem concerned first and foremost with averting another civil war, and that seems to include Hezbollah. As such, it seems like the country is going to be in political stasis for the foreseeable future. Unless one or more of the factions decides to try to take control by force (Hezbollah, I'm talking about you) in which case all bets are off.
Posted by programmer craig | June 9, 2009, 2:28 pmThere does seem to be a tendency to sympathize more with the non-secular like Hamas, Hezbollah in some of the posts so I kind of agree with Joe.
I've always had mixed feelings about Hezbollah. Their legitimacy is credible but they need to drop their weapons, I don't agree with a state within a state but then again, all of Lebanese parties are proxies for another country. While I completely disagree with their politics regarding the Palestinians, the truly patriotic Lebanese that seem to resist foriegn influences the most (keyword most, they are buddy buddy with Israel but for legit reasons)are the very RIGHT-WING Christians like the Guardian of Cedars.
Posted by Lena | June 9, 2009, 10:38 pmthe very right wing christians like guardian of cedars?? you mean the neo-nazis!! at least hezbollah are anti-imperilalist, not western arse-lickers and corporate exploiters. when the stinking rich march 14 stop enslaving sri lankan maids and start caring about average lebanese people, then we'll talk.
Posted by fizz | June 10, 2009, 10:46 amfizz, you can't call a group "fascist" and then accuse them of brown-nosing the imperialists powers. The concepts are mutually exclusive. Fascists are ultra-nationalist, by definition. If they aren't that, then they aren't fascists.
Posted by programmer craig | June 10, 2009, 2:55 pmFirst of all, I don't understand what part of the post suggests that I support any one side over the other. I'm not a fan of Saad Hariri and the not-so-secular groups he's allied with. But I don't support the other side either. If one thing has been clear in all my posts on Lebanon, it is that the whole system is screwed up; all parties are bad.
What I do advocate is cooperation and acceptance. Groups like Hezbollah and Hamas may be riddled with problems, but that does not mean they should be ostracized. On the contrary, they should be accepted with open arms. Their pariah status only serves to justify their policies and positions in the eyes of their support base whose own attitudes are radicalized as a result.
If there is any part of me that would have liked to see a victory for Hezbollah (something I never really expected), it was because that would have pushed Barack to put his money where his mouth is. Good for the headlines.
As far as the whole secularism thing is concerned, PC and Joe do not seem to understand that religious identity is at the crux of the Phalange (Gemayel) & Lebanese Forces (Geagea). All that doesn't matter anyways. The problem in Lebanon is not one of religious extremism so much as it is tribalism. Secularism is not what's important.
(And while I wouldn't necessarily describe the FPM and its supporters as secular, PC's "party of God" equation is one of the most illogical things I've ever seen)
Posted by Kalash | June 11, 2009, 6:07 amBZlqhx comment3 ,
Posted by Dzkphspy | June 24, 2009, 12:52 pm