As Fatah holds its first Congress in two decades in Bethlehem — with Israel’s approval and assistance — all the hype is about the party will change and re-connect with the people.

I very highly doubt the old schmucks who run it will loosen the reins of control, give way to younger leadership, or really entertain some of the proposals including opening relations with Iran or undertaking non-violent disobedience and joining the BDS movement. That would be too unlike them. And these steps would be very beneficial to the Palestinian cause (though they must be approached incrementally and with planning).

Democratizing the party? Yeah right.

Instead, I expect nominal concessions to various younger factions and vague and immaterial promises of change (perhaps inspired by Obama’s campaign). It will not touch some of the linchpins, such as the right to armed resistance and non-recognition of Israel as a Jewish state. And nor should they, the first is recognized by international law and violent resistance against violent oppression is a natural right; and recognizing Israel as a Jewish state is to recognize Zionism, the ideological force that caused Palestinian dispossession and victimhood in the first place. Plus, it is prejudiced against the rights to equality of the more than 1.5 million Palestinians with Israeli citizenship or residency.

What I suspect is that their party will continue to be old wine in a somewhat newer bottle. Still, there will need to be some appearance of shake-up. The brand is weak. Although polling is mixed on the question of elections, it is apparent that politically Fatah is not vibrant and is highly unstable in terms of its public position. It is a waning force. Thus, there will need to be something big, although I doubt it will be lasting.

Fatah is essentially conservative since it is structurally situated within the negotiations paradigm and will not be willing to risk America’s ire, or that of its paymaster, the international community — even as much as the party’s political efficacy depends on serious reform. As badly as it and the Palestinians need it, the party will not be able to make the needed changes.

I am willing to bet my hair on it.

If this Fatah Congress concludes with resolutions that add up to meaning, actual — meaning not just textual — reforms in structure or strategy, I will shave my head and post the photo right here. Just let me know if this proves to be the political earthquake the party needs. Just let me know if I am wrong and off the hair goes.

And don’t worry, I know seeing my head bald is not greater incentive than the current spoils/patronage system keeping the fat cats fat. This Congress may lead to some re-distribution of resources, and that is likely it, but it’s more than my hairless head offers anyone. So I think it’s a fair bet.

Related posts:

1. Support for Fatah on the Decline
2. Finally Fatah Gets it Right
3. My Thoughts on Palestinian Infighting
4. Arab League Not Interested in Arresting Sudan’s Head
5. As Iranians Struggle for Reforms…