Observers of the political scene in Palestine are carefully monitoring the situation on the ground as President Abbas just issued the much anticipated Presidential Decree to recommend holding the both the Presidential and Legislative elections on January 24th of 2010. Hamas has rejected his call on the fact that he extended his own term when it expired in 2008 and his Abbas’ “dishonest” dealings. One the other hand, Hamas fears losing the election as the situation in Gaza, where its authority is in full swing, is dire. As I closely watch the scene I have learned of a few constituencies where Hamas might have an uphill battle.
The first constituency is the overly religious wing; Hamas lost too many votes in this wing after the troubling incident in Rafah, where Hamas and a religious group had a mini war in which Hamas took out the group’s leader and few of his followers. This particular incident made people reconsider their support for Hamas. These were some of the Hamas supporters that were essential to their win in 2006 and thus Hamas cannot afford to lose this base. People in this group do not really care for politics nor for technicalities, they just do not want to see God being placed in the backseat. They do not care who rules them as long as their version of God’s teaching are observed by everyone. Hamas does reach out to this group through their extensive network of mosques where the zealots spend most of their time. A relative of mine who is in charge of a local mosque told me that he is upset with the Hamas government because they work too hard on things that should not be its priority like ministries and needless bureaucracy to give people jobs.
The second constituency that Hamas needs to worry about is average people and businessmen who want them to abide by the law and agree to an election. Their businesses have suffered after Hamas’ win or their kids cannot go abroad to finish their education because of the siege. While fair minded Gazans realize that Hamas is not the only one to blame for the siege, they can only blame either themselves for voting Hamas or blame the world for punishing them. Nevertheless, the professional classes of doctors, teachers and engineers who voted for Hamas and gave them the chance to make thing better are deeply disappointed. Now this constituency wants to see change or just a referendum on the government’s performance. These constituents are not members of militant groups, but rather the civilians who believe in being fair and playing by the rules. This group respects the law and wants Hamas to do the same. Seeing that the Hamas government failed on so many fronts—perhaps due to international scheming—they figure that another government deserves a chance to improve the situation. Hamas’s PR people are working day and night to make converts of those doubters by telling them that Hamas is not being given a fair chance.
The third constituency is a larger one which is the traditional Fateh bloc that has always voted for Fateh and now feels change is necessary by getting rid of Hamas. By now they feel that Ramallah has abandoned them and does not want anything to do with their “people” in Gaza. They feel betrayed. But members of this group have suffered under Hamas, largely for their own mistakes. This group includes at least seventy five thousand Palestinians who still receive their salaries form Ramallah and whom Hamas has targeted. This group will be the most dangerous to Hamas if they lose the election because members of this group have been imprisoned, beaten, or humiliated by Hamas. I have personally spoken to many of them and they are upset by how they have been treated by this government and seeking revenge is not out of the question. This is not an organized group anymore because Hamas managed to divide and conquer their coalition. There is not much Hamas can do to win the hearts of these voters, but they are not passionately pro Fatah anymore either.
The Fourth are the Palestinian labor, more than hundred thousand workers in Gaza alone have seen their jobs in Israel disappear; their incomes are gone with no return. With siege on Gaza, and lack of construction supplies and material necessary for any industrial infrastructure, there is little to do. The only income they get is from charities and various unemployment programs ran by international aid organizations. I have heard officials of the Hamas government wanting to tax tobacco and gasoline and put the money in fund to benefit the labor. It seems that Hamas brought a lot of misfortune on the workers of Gaza who feel neglected. They will most likely to grudgingly pick Fatah over Hamas this time around for the one simple reason, workers want jobs, electing Fatah will bring the siege to an end. But it is not that simple as Hamas might launch an emergency food program to target this swing vote. Another thing Hamas can do is remind the workers that Ramallah continue to pay their thousands of former employees in Gaza while neglecting them.
Hamas however has a loyal coalition represented in a mix of groups.
Pragmatic Islamists are the ones Hamas sees as the next best thing to an Islamic government where they can see God-fearing people in charge of making and enforcing laws. Perhaps this is the most educated constituency of Hamas. You can find these people working in the Islamic University or heading a local charity. These are the most loyal supporters and will show up first to the polls.
Average mosque goers support Hamas in exchange for the benefits it provides. Through its mosques Hamas runs a welfare program that distributes food stamps to the needy who are regulars at the mosque. The only condition one needs to meet is to be in need and to show up for prayer. But members of this group are indifferent to politics and their support will go to the party that gives them a little bit more. Some observers believe Hamas is making the same mistake Fateh did by paying off people.
Hamas foot soldiers, not much militant work anymore, due to self-interest. This is about the only group allowed to carry weapons beside the police force. They are sort of the protectors of the government and its establishment. If the Hamas police force needs to go to war against another Palestinian militia, these guys are called up. While they may be disappointed in the lack of Jihad against the Israelis, they and their families are still the moral fiber of the Hamas government. Many of them now hold civilian jobs in the Hamas government just to kill time. When Hamas took over the narrow Gaza Strip it hired many of its supporters and placed them in government positions they had never imagined they could aspire to. Many perks such as new cars, air conditioned offices, and cool job titles came as well. Many in this constituency now teach, practice medicine, manage contracts for the government, and rule over other people. These guys will fight the hardest to see Hamas stay in power because they have the most to lose. That’s why whenever Hamas meets with Fatah one of their biggest concerns is to make sure their own employees are absorbed in any future unity government.
While many skeptics doubt Hamas will agree to an election in January 2010, others fear an election in the West Bank and not in Gaza. Hamas’s spokesman maintains Hamas is strong and insists it is ready to win any election. But actually Hamas was seeking a unity agreement that will defer the elections to give them more time to win new friends. But whatever the future of relations between Hamas and Fatah, Israel might complicate things by helping one party over another. For example, Israeli might carry out a fresh military campaign against Gaza; this military campaign might bring a lot of destruction on the Palestinians and serve as a bailout plan for one party over the other.
Related posts:
- Trouble Brewing for Israel on the Northern Front?
- Post-Gaza Palestinians Worse Off, but Not Blaming Hamas
- The Gaza Memos: Unity Agreement?
- Hamas Claims Victory — Protest Votes Win
- Hamas – What’s the Problem?
Divide and Conquer . . . worked well for the French and the British, probably why Israel used the strategy when they helped to create Hamas in the late 80's to divide Fatah.
Programmer Craig and his sidekick Eagle-whatever-his-name-is, will probably come out and pull some irrelevant articles and videos with some ignorant (and sometimes stupid) comments about how Hamas is really an off-shoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. The informed people of this world however, know the preaching of such notions is the pure distortion of facts and truths that the racist Zionist machine tries to disseminate and spread through their wide campaign of ball busting and intimidation.
Thanks for this post 'Tizer. Been a while since we see some actual political analysis "on the ground."
Posted by Los | October 28, 2009, 10:22 pmLos, about Israel creating Hamas….people in Gaza say the same thing and me and you heard the Israeli Amassadour in Washington say the same….but I fear that Israel uses that to discredit Hamas with its supporters. You know I am no fan of their actions…but I do not like it when the Israelis treat that little fact like a political football. Thanks
Posted by Hanitizer | October 29, 2009, 7:47 amAre these distortions of fact?
List of Hamas suicide attacks
Three Hamas women arrested for plotting suicide attack against Fatah
Hamas rockets a war crime: Human Rights Watch
"Hamas forces violated the laws of war both by firing rockets deliberately and indiscriminately at Israeli cities and by launching them from populated areas and endangering Gazan civilians," HRW programme director Iain Levine said.
Gaza/Israel: Hamas Rocket Attacks on Civilians Unlawful
Launches from Populated Areas Endanger Israelis and Palestinians
Hamas Pulling Back Into Crowded Cities, Beckoning Israelis
Hamas 'harming Gaza opponents'
A rights group has accused Palestinian organisation Hamas of killing or maiming alleged collaborators and political opponents in Gaza.
"Hamas forces in Gaza have engaged in abductions, unlawful killings, torture and death threats against those they accuse of 'collaborating' with Israel," says the report.
It says the same violence has been inflicted on "opponents and critics" of the Hamas administration.
Many witnesses and victims are said to be too frightened to come forward.
But one victim told investigators how he had been taken from his home by masked men and shot in both legs.
Some of those killed are said to have been shot dead while receiving hospital treatment.
Amnesty has called for an end to the violence and is urging the Hamas leadership to set up an independent commission to look into its allegations.
Hamas recruited children to conduct combat-support operations.
In a Newsweek article quoted in the Goldstone report, a Palestinian witness stated "resistance fighters were firing from positions all around the [Al Quds] hospital." An article in the Italian daily Corriere della Sera corroborates this, quoting a resident of the neighborhood saying, "The Hamas gunmen had taken refuge mainly in the building that houses the administrative offices of Al Quds" and that "nurses were forced to take off their uniforms … so they [the gunmen] could blend better and escape the Israeli snipers."
In the Corriere della Sera article, Gazan residents explicitly stated that Hamas fighters forcibly prevented them from leaving their houses and shot at Israeli forces from the same locations, telling them that they should be happy to die together with the "holy warriors."
Posted by eagle007blogger | October 29, 2009, 9:05 amLos, believe it or not I don't spend my time stressing over issues like "who created HAMAS". I do find it a bit amusing that people on this blog think Israelis are so powerful that they can create an Islamist terror group, but that's about as far as my interest goes. Sorry to disappoint you.
If you want to claim the US created al Qaida, that's something I'll take up with you!
Posted by programmer craig | October 30, 2009, 9:07 amHamas has indeed been the victim of the international community's unwillingness to abide by international law and international humanitarian law, but its own mistakes cannot be discounted.
I don't believe in elections under occupation, and there is no doubt that whatever elections Abbas want to pull off will be rigged (just look at the Fateh conference in Bethlehem this summer).
The thing is, the suffering of Gazan's has too long been tied to the presence and power of Hamas in the strip. But Gaza has been under siege and virtually cut off from the outside world since the mid-90's. It's true that things are worse today than ever before, and its true that you can't expect hungry and jobless people to think beyond their own immediate needs, but Israel (and Egypt of course) has denied the people of Gaza of a dignified life long before Hamas existed and even as its best friends in Fateh were in control.
Again, elections under occupation are a sham when the choices you have are total siege or partial siege, and Hamas' biggest failing is playing this game in the first place.
Posted by MohammadKF | October 28, 2009, 10:46 pmHamas has not been the "victim" of the international communities' anything. They are not "victims" at all, they create victims. The international community has rejected Hamas, and for good reason….
Hamas are known the world over for suicide attacks and terrorism. Point blank.
Most in the international community wouldn't accept a government made up of the Italian mafia or Mexican drug cartels either.
I agree that "the suffering of Gazan's has too long been tied to the presence and power of Hamas in the strip"
Palestinians definitely need improvement in their security and economic situations, they need improvement in their infrastructure and their water system needs development. Hamas has not been a help and probably never will be.
elections under occupation are a sham when the choices you have are total siege or partial siege
If that were really true, the obvious choice would be partial siege and then work from there. As for Hamas, they have many bigger failings than just participating in elections, that's for certain.
People do seem to be slowly realizing that Hamas are a failure. Also there seems to be some momentum building for actually getting to the bottom of things, such as Israel's crimes [for example, the unfair jailings are coming to everyones attention] and stinginess, to Palestinian crimes and mistakes and bigotry in their media and schools, to political hypocrisies and shortcomings… hopefully both sides can become civilized enough to get to a solution sooner rather than later… hopefully it won't require more time passing, for more generations to pass before finding solutions palatable to both sides.
As for the elections, Hamas said anyone in Gaza who co-operated with the poll (set for Jan. 24) would be "dealt with by the ministry or by other means". wtf? And remember this: Hamas 'harming Gaza opponents'
Posted by eagle007blogger | October 29, 2009, 6:23 am<<They are thugs, a criminal gang grasping on to power>>
Looks like they're taking lessons from the Zionists
Posted by Los | October 29, 2009, 1:22 pmI know you are, but what am I?
Posted by Lol | October 30, 2009, 4:27 amHere's the thing about Hamas being a criminal gang, akin to the Italian mafia (did you know that the US used them to help cement power in Sicily immediately following the invasion of Europe's soft underbelly in WWII? I didn't 'til very recently – but 'tis true). Even if one accept this argument, that doesn't explain the international community's rejection of them. Let's scale up for a minute and look at other states which get considerable input from criminal gangs/networks, and which are accorded legitimacy by the international community: Afghanistan, Pakistan, Russia, and Equatorial Guinea, just for four truly glaring examples. Now, these states, which are currently being run as for-profit entities by criminal cliques, which kill and torture people, etc. – similar to what you're accusing the looters and shooters, if you will, of Hamas of doing – have no problem with the international community doing business with them. Shit, they don't even have much trouble with irredentism, a la Russia in Georgia. What's the difference? Power. And money. The interests of the wider international community (or the G-8, or the G-20, or however you want to parse it). Putin, Karzai, Obiang, and Zardari are useful to those interests. Hamas is not. You can argue moral high ground, if you want, and I might even concede some of your points though by no means all. But I don't think it's useful to you to try to take the moral high ground vis-a-vis international recognition of Hamas. A winter metaphoric simile, since it's almost that time of year: the snow on that mountain is a heart as pure as the driven slush.
Posted by Suddha | October 30, 2009, 2:54 amEven if one accept this argument, that doesn't explain the international community's rejection of them.
Actually, they could have gained acceptance by recognizing Israel and renouncing violence. Do you remember when those conditions were layed out? Of course they refused.
Let's scale up for a minute and look at other states which get considerable input from criminal gangs/networks…
That is a good point, but the difference is that Hamas itself took power (the Palestinians have always had radical Islamic militants associated with them). It is true that corruption and crime are rampant in some states… but, if the Costra Nostra itself took over a country and set up a government called "La Costra Nostra" then that govt would likely be rejected… but in the meantime Costra Nostra undoubtedly has ties to certain governments, states, ect. but they do not make up the government.
Consider one of the drug producing states of South America… the cartels certainly have ties to the governments in those places – and they run an enterprise that makes huge amounts of money, with which they can bribe officials, exert power, ect. But the government itself does not bear the name of the Cartel, and the head of the Cartel is not the Prime Minister.
Hamas is not the same as Putin, Karzai, Obiang, or Zardari… the difference is not the level of usefulness to the international community, the difference is that Hamas is a terrorist organization, committed to the destruction of another nation. Corruption in some other place in the world does not justify what Hamas does. (For some reason that sort of reminds me of a child saying, "they can do it! why can't I?" )
I do see the point you are making, but consider this: some other government running Gaza and the West Bank are not offering any more power and money to the international community – in fact the international community gives aid to the Palestinians (for example in 2005 the U.S. gave the Palestinians $400 million and the EU gave $600 million) – believe it or not, some of the leadership in the world is not motivated by just greed and selfishness… believe it or not, some work to promote peace and stability.
And of course peace and stability in Palestine benefits the region and the world. Have you noticed how most nations want peace in Palestine? And have you noticed how various Islamic terrorist groups, and places like Iran, do not want peace in Palestine?
Posted by eagle007blogger | October 30, 2009, 5:08 amClinton continues push for Mideast peace
ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates – U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton is making a new push to get Israelis and Palestinians back to the negotiating table, holding talks Saturday in this Persian Gulf city with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas and later in Israel with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Clinton was to make a personal plea for the two sides to resume peace talks even as U.S. officials acknowledged they saw little prospect for an immediate breakthrough.
Posted by eagle007blogger | October 31, 2009, 9:05 amFrom what I see here in Gaza there are two Hamas, not one. There are the PhD types educated in the West who run the government, represent the movement, and serve the people. Those I came to know as Hamas light. There are the tug types who protect the establishment and answer to the guy in Syria. Those guys are the foot soliders of Al Qassam, they might hold jobs in the Hamas government, but they are not the face of the organization…they are the guns when needed.
Posted by Hanitizer | October 30, 2009, 7:59 amWhat do you think HAMAS will do if elections are held in Gaza and they lose?
Posted by programmer craig | October 30, 2009, 9:12 amWill those guns be needed to stop the Palestinians from making decisions about their leadership?
Posted by eagle007blogger | October 31, 2009, 9:14 amThe same thing FATAH did when they lost. Why do you capitalize the entire word?
Anyway, there won't be elections in Gaza, and if there are elections in the West Bank they won't be recognized by most Palestinians. Elections under occupation is a sham, governance under occupation is a sham, and this mess is the logical result of Oslo.
Posted by MohammadKF | October 30, 2009, 9:32 amI have to agree with Mohammad:
Only free people can negociate . . . only free people can have real elections.
Only when Israel gives the Palestinians their full and complete sovereignty, will we see true and viable elections. These upcoming (and past) elections are nothing more than false hopes of governance backed by artificial and phantom authority over a land and a people the winners of the elections have no real power or control over.
Posted by Los | October 30, 2009, 4:12 pmCan the Palestinians choose a government? Can they reject Hamas if they want to?
Or are you suggesting that they may not or should not make decisions about their leadership in the current condition?
Posted by eagle007blogger | October 31, 2009, 9:10 amThe same thing FATAH did when they lost. Why do you capitalize the entire word?
Because HAMAS is an acronym. It's common practice to capitalize acronyms.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamas
Hamas (حماس Ḥamās, an acronym of حركة المقاومة الاسلامية Ḥarakat al-Muqāwamat al-Islāmiyyah
Posted by programmer craig | October 30, 2009, 7:33 pmAre you suggesting that they may not or should not make decisions about their leadership in the current condition?
Or are you just hedging in case Hamas loses… saying ahead of time that any elections are a "sham" ?
Hamas said anyone in Gaza who co-operated with the poll (set for Jan. 24) would be "dealt with by the ministry or by other means". Do you support these strong-arm tactics of intimidation?
Posted by eagle007blogger | October 31, 2009, 9:13 amClinton meets Abbas in new Middle East peace push
ABU DHABI (Reuters) – U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Saturday, launching a rapid series of meetings with Palestinian and Israeli officials to keep up pressure for a new Mideast peace deal.
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